Apple iPhone XR shipment forecast slashed by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

Anna Jefferson
November 15, 2018

Lumentum, a maker of parts used for facial recognition, didn't name the customer but Apple is its biggest, according to Bloomberg supply-chain data.

Concerns over iPhone sales growth and a cut in forecasts from a number of Apple suppliers have investors anxious about the outlook for the world's largest company. The US$3.2 billion combination of optical component makers II-VI and Finisar Corp., announced last week, will create a larger company that's better able to negotiate on prices.

Based on Lumentum forecast, analysts have deduced that there is an 18 to 20 million reduction in iPhone orders from Apple. Hon Hai joins a string of Apple suppliers that have warned of a worsening outlook as iPhone volumes plateau alongside a lethargic smartphone market.

And since the company's disappointing quarterly earnings and the announcement that it would no longer report iPhone unit sales, both investors and Wall Street analysts have soured on the stock. Lumentum, which supplies FaceID components for the iPhone XS, XS Max, and XR, has reduced its profit and revenue forecasts thanks to reduced orders from Apple.

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'For Apple, the iPhone shipment has reached its peak.

Goldman gave Apple a neutral rating and downgraded its price target to $US209 from $US222. Guggenheim's Robert Cihra removed his previous 12 month price forecast of $245, writing that, "unlike past year [we] do not see ASP (average selling price) increases providing enough offset, with our forecast that blended iPhone ASPs increase only +3%Y/Y, leaving iPhone revenues -2%Y/Y".

"A year ago AAPL looked like a table-pounder when iPhone units were weak", Guggenheim wrote in its note on Wednesday.

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Early in the year, the company confirmed it had been intentionally throttling the speeds of some older phones to avoid battery-related problems.

Although Apple never said as much when it launched the Apple iPhone XR in September, its fairly obvious the device is meant to be more a direct competitor with the Android market.

Apple shares fell 5 per cent on Monday, but Lumentum slumped more than 30 per cent and rival II-VI Inc. dropped 13 per cent. Japan Display dropped 9.5 per cent, while Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. slipped to the lowest level in five years.

This isn't the first sign of bad news for the latest iPhones.

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The move led analysts to question the company's business and its share price has since dropped 12.6%.

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