Oil Prices Back From 3-Year High After Trump's Tweet, Opec Report

Anna Jefferson
April 15, 2018

OPEC and key non-OPEC members like Russian Federation had agreed to curb output by 1.8 million barrels a day to until five-year stockpiles in developed countries returned to average.

Oil prices rose on Friday and were headed for their largest weekly gain since July, amid support from concerns over the prospect of Western military action in Syria and reports of dwindling global oil stocks. They mention that "it is not for us to declare on behalf of OPEC that it is mission accomplished", and that "if our outllok is accurate, it certainly looks very much like it".

"Oil prices climbed further to their highest level in several weeks as tension in the Middle East and the possibility of further drops in Venezuelan output helped offset the impact of growing United States crude production", it said Thursday in its monthly report.

The 24 members bound by the wider accord have now cut output by nearly 2.4 million barrels a day, more than their combined pledge of 1.8 million barrels, the IEA said.

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The country produced about 3.810 million barrels per day of crude oil in February, the report read.

Meanwhile, the forecast for global oil demand was increased by 30,000 bpd to 1.63 million bpd. Preliminary data indicate that stockpiles will fall to the five-year average level by May.

Confirming estimates by S&P Global Platts, the IEA said a third of the March cuts came as a result of intentional reductions from Venezuela and Mexico, which have lost a combined 890,000 b/d versus the October 2016 baseline.

Oil-market observers were looking ahead to weekly data Friday from Baker Hughes on the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US, a key metric for activity in the sector.

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A market report from the IEA said the impact of US oil production is limited by pipeline constraints, while "more than a second Saudi Arabia" has been added to the OPEC-led effort since it began, making the markets tighter in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Indeed, the IEA noted that, expressed on a days of forward demand basis, OECD oil stocks have already been below the five-year average since January this year.

"Expect the undersupply to remain through a summer time horizon as Saudi rhetoric continues to point to higher oil price", the bank said in a note.

First-quarter demand from non-OECD countries was revised downward by 260,000 barrels a day "due to weak Chinese data".

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