Deficits, National Debt Will Rise During Trump Administration: Congressional Budget Office

Ignacio Smith
April 12, 2018

CBO says the federal deficit is projected to be $804 billion this year and will blow through $1 trillion by 2020, which is earlier than previously projected.

For 2018, the deficit is expected to top $800 billion, about $140 billion more than the shortfall past year.

The annual deficit is on pace to exceed $1 trillion by 2020. In the last fiscal year ending last September, the deficit was US$ 665 billion.

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"The only time since World War II when the average deficit has been so large over so many years was after the 2007-2009 recession", the budget office noted.

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Debt held by the public, which has doubled in the past 10 years as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), will approach 100 percent of GDP by 2028.

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The federal government's raising debt has appeared of minor outcome on Capitol Hill in recent years as Republicans Congress efficiently worked to pass a sweeping package of tax cuts. It warns that interest rates on government borrowing will spike, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, now yielding 2.8 percent, will average a 3.0 percent interest rate this year and 3.7 percent next year. Notably, and in keeping with the anti-intellectual spirit of the times, conservatives have not even bothered formulating a rationale for increasing the deficit during the peak of an economic expansion. And if lawmakers decide to extend tax cuts they approved past year and continue discretionary spending at current levels, the nation's debt load will equal 105 percent of GDP in a decade - a tab seen only once, right after World War II. The current national debt, including projected future spending on social programs, totals more than $20 trillion. After 2019, economic growth is projected to slow, eventually matching CBO's estimate of the economy's maximum sustainable rate of growth...

The CBO data clearly shows that revenue as a proportion of GDP was expected to have risen back to its 2017 level by 2023 even before the expiration of many tax cuts, showing that from then on its rising spending that is driving the worsening outlook in debt over this period. "The American people deserve a Congress that is focused squarely on helping the middle class, not patronizing Kabuki theatre - like sham "balanced budget" votes - from Republicans who blew up the deficit to benefit wealthy special interests".

If Congress continues to let deficits balloon, it faces several long-term risks.

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Worse, it could ultimately lead to an economic downturn and make a fiscal crisis more likely.

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